Thursday, September 27, 2012

QE3 Fixed Income Aftermath

So what happens to fixed income after QE3? I thought it would be interesting to look at the max drawdowns versus the current 30-day SEC yields for a select cross-section of the fixed income ETF space for the past 52-weeks. All yields are quite compressed as is expected. Yields are so compressed that only MBB (US agency-based mortgage bonds) has a 30-day SEC yield exceeding the max drawdown. TIPs have negative yield as was true for quite a while now. It seems the contagion of return-free risk has spread to most of the fixed income ETF universe at this point.

ETF Max Drawdown Max Drawdown (%) Stdev 30-day SEC yield
SHY 1-3Yr Treasuries 0.35 0.41% 0.11 0.12
MBB Agency-Backed Mortgages 0.87 0.82% 1.19 3.04
CSJ 1-3Yr Credit 1.12 1.08% 0.91 0.82
AGG Broad Market 1.72 1.57% 1.72 1.57
CIU Intermed Credit 2.26 2.15% 2.37 1.84
TIP 2.8 2.30% 2.79 -1.69
LQD Investment-Grade Corporates 5.21 4.66% 3.99 2.93
EMB Emerging (Dollar) 5.51 4.88% 5.36 4.93
MUB Munis 6.06 5.41% 2.87 1.82
JNK High-yield 2.66 7.24% 1.68 5.69
HYG High-yield 6.7 7.90% 3.77 5.44
ELD Emerging (Local) 3.92 7.57% 1.58 3.94

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